GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Mar 5, 2025
This is Mark Staples with the avalanche forecast for Wednesday, March 5th, at 7:00 a.m. sponsored by the Avalanche Alliance and the Idaho State Snowmobile Association - Avalanche Fund. This forecast does not apply to operating ski areas.
This morning temperatures are in the upper teens F in most areas and a few degrees warmer in the Bridgers. Winds picked up a bit yesterday afternoon/evening at upper elevations and are blowing 7-14 mph with gusts 20-30 mph from the west this morning. Gusts in Hyalite Canyon hit 40 mph. Near Cooke City, an inch of snow fell early this morning.
Today will have a mix of sun and clouds with more clouds near West Yellowstone, Island Park, and Cooke City. High temperatures will range from 25-30 degrees F. Winds will continue as they are this morning, but should be decreasing and becoming light by the end of the day.
Snow comes tomorrow (Thursday) favoring southern parts of the forecast area with about 5 inches of snow and a few inches further north. The next chance of snow comes the middle of next week.
In popular areas, few slopes have been untouched by tracks and it’s been about a week since significant snowfall.
Persistent slab avalanches remain the primary problem, but the odds of triggering one on most slopes is low; however, there are likely a few slopes lurking out there where you could trigger one of these slides 2-3 feet deep. Be most suspicious of slopes at mid elevations, in the trees. Check out photos from a slide in Lionhead on Friday, Cabin Creek on Thursday, and last Monday in Cooke to get a sense of the type of terrain harboring the weak layer of facets responsible for these slides. This weak layer seems more pronounced in the southern Madison and Gallatin ranges and the Lionhead area.
At this point, this avalanche problem is isolated, and most slopes have generally safe avalanche conditions making the avalanche danger LOW. This doesn’t mean no danger. Isolated slopes can still produce avalanches, and I’d avoid steep terrain that runs into a terrain trap like trees, rocks, or a gully.
Shallow wind slabs - Increased winds from the west (especially in Hyalite Canyon) at upper elevations have formed wind slabs maybe 6-8 inches deep just under ridgelines. The threat of this problem will be determined by the terrain you choose today. These wind slabs will be most dangerous in extreme terrain where simply falling downhill can have severe consequences. With no new snow yesterday near Island Park, this problem is almost non-existent.
Today, avalanches are unlikely on the vast majority of terrain and the avalanche danger is LOW. Watch out for and avoid pockets harboring shallow wind slabs especially in more extreme terrain.
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
Avalanche awareness focused on springtime avalanche conditions: Thursday, March 13 at the Bozeman REI from 6-7:30 p.m. The event is free but has limited space and requires registration HERE.
Every weekend in Cooke City: Friday at The Antlers at 7 p.m., Free Avalanche Awareness and Current Conditions talk, and Saturday from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. at Round Lake Warming Hut, Free Rescue Practice.